Cruz Surges to Lead in California. Devastating Numbers for Trump…

January 5, 2016


Political naysayers who have belittled the possibility of Ted Cruz winning the GOP presidential nomination are falling deafly silent in the wake of a brand new poll which shows Cruz having surged into the lead in California.

Released this morning, the Field poll shows Cruz leading the field at 25%, with Donald Trump in a close second place at 23%, with Marco Rubio a distant third at 13%, Ben Carson 9%, Rand Paul 6%, Jeb Bush 4, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina 3%, John Kasich 1%, with Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum having 0% support.


When compared to the last California poll which Field conducted in late September, a few things stand out…

  • Cruz has surged to 25% from 6%
  • Fiorina has plummeted from 13% to just 3%
  • Carson has also taken a major hit and is down to 9% from 15%
  • Huckabee has dropped off the radar from 3% to 0%


It’s also interesting to note that though he is slightly up from the September poll, Marco Rubio has only gained 3% and seems to be getting little traction as compared to Cruz’s surge. This could spell serious trouble for Rubio who also finds himself in third place in Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida which is Rubio’s home state where he trails Cruz by 5 points in each of the latest two polls.


But perhaps the worst news from the California Field poll is for Trump despite him being a mere two points behind Cruz and having gained 5% since September.  The deeper polling data shows Trump in serious long term trouble….


According to the Field polling analysis, Trump would have little chance of gaining much of any support from any other candidates should voters decide to switch their support, and his disapproval ratings are close to 50% and more than twice that of Cruz and twice that of Rubio.


The Field poll report states that, “Despite the closeness of the standings between Cruz and Trump, other results from the poll indicate that Trump is in a weaker position than Cruz, and in some respects Rubio, among all GOP voters, as well as the broader statewide electorate. For example, just 11% of likely GOP voters name Trump as their second choice preference for president, while twice as many (22%) say this in regard to Cruz. Another 14% choose Rubio as their second choice.

Many more California Republican primary voters also have an unfavorable opinion of Trump (45%) than say this about Cruz (20%) or Rubio (26%). Similarly, greater than four in ten Republican voters (43%) say they would be dissatisfied or upset were Trump to become their party’s nominee, while only about half as many say this about Cruz (21%) or Rubio (24%). This means that Trump is in a weaker position to broaden his support among the state’s GOP electorate should voters now supporting other candidates change their minds and migrate to one of other Republicans as the June California primary draws nearer.

Finally, when the state’s overall registered voter population, not just likely Republican primary voters, are asked their opinions of the three leading GOP candidates, many more Californians (73%) say they hold an unfavorable opinion of Trump than say this about Cruz (51%) or Rubio (46%).”


The poll comes as the latest in a string of good news for Cruz who holds a solid lead in Iowa according to several of the most recent polls, is in a solid second place in the last 9 consecutive national polls, and is also in a solid second place South Carolina, Nevada, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina according to the al Clear Politics poll average.

By Javan Browder, Managing Editor – Conservative Fifty Dot Com


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